A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
