Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.
He published his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.
What was your night?
I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.
You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.
Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?
He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.
He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and residents squeezed by affordability
Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?
It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.
One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?
Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.
You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?
Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.
Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.
He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.
What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?
I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.
Prior to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?
There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.
Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?
Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.
However I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.
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