Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
Elara is a passionate writer and photographer who shares insights on creativity and mindful living through engaging storytelling.
